Business Valuation

Business Valuation

Real Estate Valuation

Real Estate Valuation

Machinery & Equipment Valuation

Machinery & Equipment Valuation

Survivorship in Valuations

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Written by: Brett Shadbolt, CEO Censere ​ Something I constantly struggle with as a valuer is the effect of survivorship bias and its effects on the valuation of early stage businesses. As valuers we are tasked with trying to predict what a business might sell for on a given day. In performing this task we reference comparable market transactions and draw on inputs from equity ...
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Conservatism in Valuation

Conservatism in Valuation
Conservatism or prudence is a major building block in financial reporting. Earnings and asset values should not be overstated whilst liabilities and expenses should be accounted for in full. This helps guard against potential financial statement manipulation and misrepresentation. Asset valuation, on the other land, is unavoidably judgmental, and conservatism always plays a rol...
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Room for Rent: A Review of Global Hotel Industry Drivers & Trends

As the middle class grows in emerging markets, with greater disposable income, travelling for leisure is becoming a natural aspiration for many. To meet this demand, expanding hotel chains in emerging markets are not only targeting western clients, but also aiming at enhanced brand awareness and loyalty among the local population who are expected to drive future growth.

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The Museum of Thai Corruption – “Showcasing Thailand corruption cases”

In Thailand, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (the "NACC") has funded and organized, The Museum of Thai Corruption (the "Museum"), which is a roaming museum to raise the awareness of fraud and corruption in Thailand. The Museum showcases ten major alleged cases in Thailand over the last 15 years which includes: the rice subsidy scheme (in more detail below), corruption i...
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Fraud & Corruption in the Pharmaceutical Industry in China

Fraud & Corruption Typologies

Despite increased enforcement of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act ("FCPA") and China's own commercial bribery laws, fraud and corruption remains rife across many industries in China, especially in the pharmaceutical and life sciences industry where the benefits of bribery still seem to outweigh the risks. The most common typologies being: 
  • Sales teams bribing doctors to purchase their products
  • Fictitious sales and fake contracts
  • Tendering fraud and bid rigging
  • Off label use of pharmaceuticals
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Bioplastics set for significant growth through 2018

Bioplastics set for significant growth through 2018
Bioplastics, also called biobased plastic or biodegradable plastic, are a type of plastic manufactured from renewable biomass feedstocks such as vegetable oils, corn starch or sugar. The bioplastics industry is still a niche market and in its emerging growth stage though bioplastics have been utilized in a number of commercial markets and applications, such as packaging, textil...
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Forensic Integrity Due Diligence and the Protection of Personal Data in Hong Kong

Author: Richard Batten LL.B (Hons), Barrister and Solicitor of the Supreme Court of Victoria and Director of Censere Group Co., Ltd

Richard is a Director with the Censere Group and for the past 20 years has been assisting clients in the Asia Pacific Region with Due Diligence investigations in a variety of Mergers and Acquisitions across different industries.  His projects have included clients from China, Japan, India, Korea, Australia and the USA.  

One of the significant trends in the Asia Pacific region over the last few decades has been the emergence in a number of countries of new or tightened laws on privacy of personal data or “Data Privacy”.  This trend has created a particular challenge for forensic practitioners providing integrity due diligence services to clients seeking to mitigate their risk(s) before deciding on significant investments in the region.  Not only does a forensic practitioner need to understand where and how to obtain relevant background information on a target company, and key individuals associated with the target, but is also required to have a sound knowledge of all data privacy laws and guidance in the jurisdictions relevant to particular due diligence projects.

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The Consolidation of China’s Dairy Industry

Mengniu, Yili and Bright Dairy are Market Leaders

On basis of company sizes, market players in the Chinese dairy market can be categorized into 3 tiers. The 1st tier refers to the national players, namely, Mengniu, Yili, and Bright Dairy. The 2nd tier includes regional players, such as Beijing Sanyuan Dairy, Royal Dairy, and Yantang Dairy. The 3rd tier players focus almost solely on local markets and pose no immediate threat to players in the first two tiers. There are more than 1,500 dairy companies in China, while the number of companies with operational revenues above RMB5 million is more than 400. In 2012 the dairy industry reported sales revenue of RMB246.54 billion, the top 4 dairy companies were all domestic companies and merely accounted for around 39% of market share. Foreign dairy companies, such as Danone, Mead Johnson, and Nestle, made up more than half of the market.

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An Overview of China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

China is the second largest pharmaceutical market in the world

With China’s expanding personal income and the growing medical needs of its aging population, its pharmaceutical market has become the second largest in the world. IMS Health predicts that global spending on medicines will reach around USD1,300 billion by 2018, a 30% increase over the 2013 level. During 2014-18, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on medicines spending will be 4% to 7%. China had a spending level of USD77.2 billion in 2012, which accounted for 8% of global medicines spending. It is forecasted that China’s spending level will reach USD155-185 billion in 2018, which would be the highest among emerging pharmaceutical markets. The key drivers for growth will be healthcare infrastructure improvements, increased access to medicines, and increases in the number of private hospitals.

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Increased Financial Stress and Fraud

Why people commit fraud

Financial stress is widely recognized as one of the key reasons why people commit fraud. Some people commit fraud for other, pathological, reasons, but these are small in number and not typically the kind of fraudsters we deal with daily.

However employees and suppliers who have had a long and trusted relationship with you may feel added pressures when there are dark clouds on the horizon. Presently with the price of oil, coal and other minerals at recent record low, many Resources and Energy Sector employers are looking to reduce costs to help mitigate any potential losses. Orders are down, inventories are being reduced, payment cycles are increasing; there is generally a greater level of uncertainty right now.

Your staff and suppliers may feel their position with you is threatened and start to worry about their short to medium term future. At the same time your staff and suppliers are seeking their cost of living and business costs increasing, with little they can do about it.

It is at exactly these times of economic uncertainty that your staff and suppliers will start to feel increased stress about how they will meet their own financial obligations. For many it is a lifestyle issue, for others it really is a matter of survival. Committing fraud is often seen as the only way.

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China Iron Market 1Q2015 Review

Australia holds the largest amount of iron ore reserves

According to the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS), world total reserves of iron amount to about 81,000 million tonnes contained within 170,000 million tonnes of crude ore. Australia and Brazil are among the world’s largest iron ore holders and hold a large portion of the world’s iron ore reserves. As of 2013, Australia had reserves of 17,000 million tonnes of iron content and 35,000 million tonnes of crude ore while the figures for Brazil were 16,000 million tonnes and 31,000 million tonnes respectively.

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Coal Consumption in Asia Pacific Power Sector

Overview of coal power generation in Asia Pacific countries

Coal is a crucial fuel for the generation of electricity and it is reported that over 40% of electricity generated worldwide in 2013 was fueled by coal. Mongolia and South Africa used coal to generate more than 90% of each country’s total electricity in 2013. Coal is also a major source in some Asia Pacific countries; China, Australia, and India generated more than half of their electricity by coal. In Indonesia and Japan, coal is used to generate 48% and 21% of electricity respectively. 

  

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China Consumer Market – The Supermarket Sector

The Supermarket Sector Experienced Rapid Growth in the Past Decade

Since the early 1990s, when the supermarket sector started to open to private and foreign investors, the Chinese supermarket sector has been expanding massively. In 1992 there were around 2,500 supermarkets in China, and following economic growth and urbanization, the number of supermarket increased fourfold by 2002. The growth trend continued and the number reached 38,554 by 2011. The compound annual growth rate from 2002 to 2011 was 15.82%. As a matter of course, sales volume has also increased significantly from RMB131.8 billion in 2002 to RMB339.8 billion in 2011. Today, the Chinese supermarket sector is quite mature and competitive. 

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India Water Security and Wastewater Treatment Market 

India Suffers from Water Security Problem

With the second largest population in the world and a growing economy, India is a big water consumer. However, as a result of limited water availability and poor infrastructure, India faces a number of challenges. The Water Security Index, created by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), gives India an overall score of 1.6 which is low compared to other Asian countries. Among the five components of the index India gets the lowest scores for household water security, urban water security, and environmental water security. This indicates that India suffers from serious water problems including: (1) poor ability to satisfy household water and sanitation needs, and poor ability to meet hygiene requirements for public health in all communities; (2) insufficient urban water-related services, such as water supply, wastewater treatment, and drainage; and (3) river basins that are in poor health. 

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